2021-08-26

Daily checklist

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Notes

  • https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/tetlock-and-the-taliban?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo0NzYxLCJwb3N0X2lkIjo0MDA3NjE1NCwiXyI6IlNFNTJSIiwiaWF0IjoxNjI5ODg5NDIwLCJleHAiOjE2Mjk4OTMwMjAsImlzcyI6InB1Yi05ODEwMiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.On0m4Mxt1vXZOS0vG8ykqokGOpnKrT-zFNm2jZxBB3Y
    • Dont know if this is valid that political science got shown up. The analogy is if Werner von brahn was beaten to space by an African witch doctor. Its not that the Taliban achieved the stated goals of political scientists though. They bullied their way to the top which is the not exactly optimal route.
    • Is expertise largely fake?
    • Narrow questions answered in Political Science, public opinion doesn’t really matter in International relations. Statistical methods are not really relevant.
    • In terms of answering questions, is academia really the route? history, political science specifically
    • Specialization inclines towards fancy tools to examine possible obvious answers (ethics used as an example where you need to be original)
    • Uses examples of murder rates and depression as more people get into the fields to solve both of these problems. Both by certain metrics have increased. Whats happening here? Is there just a large amount of spoofers. Or at least just nonsense going on, being researched. So that normal people who are trying to help get caught up in some web of esoteric bullshit that doesn’t really answer any question they are trying to solve or they are incentivised away from the maximum optimum to local optima.
    • Details the problems with choosing for diversity sake and not just those with good ‘intellectual habits’