10/03/23 16:01:50
@daily @hanson
Inadequate Equilibria
I haven’t read the book, but the notion that you might be right, or could do a better job than the experts is interesting because it crosses over with prediction markets.
When to know that you should invest time and effort into things like this.
So for Google to remain underpriced when your uncle sees it, you have to assume everyone at every Wall Street hedge fund has just failed to notice this tremendous money-making opportunity – the same sort of implausible failure as a $20 staying on the floor of Grand Central for a week.
The idea is that if you go too far with this logic, nothing can ever be bad.
This is oddly a very resonant problem, specifically, when I look at creating narratives for my life etc. or specific career things. Going to try read the rest of this ssc post.
- I believe in evolution. But about half of Americans believe in creation. So either way, half of people are wrong about the evolution-creation debate. Since I know I’m in a category, half of whom are wrong, I should assume there’s a 50-50 chance I’m wrong about evolution.
But surely the situation isn’t symmetrical? After all, the evolution side includes all the best biologists, all the most educated people, all the people with the highest IQ. The problem is, the true Outside Viewer can say “Ah, yes, but a creationist would say that their side is better, because it includes all the best fundamentalist preachers, all the world’s most pious people, and all the people with the most exhaustive knowledge of Genesis. So you’re in a group of people, the Group Who Believe That Their Side Is Better Qualified To Judge The Evolution-Creation Debate, and 50% of the people in that group are wrong. So this doesn’t break the fundamental symmetry of the situation.