April 7th, 2021

• Paper on expected productivity vs actual
  • ”Overall, we complete 53% of our weekly tasks in the originally planned week. The actual number of hours required to complete a task is, on average, 1.7x as many hours as expected (with a median multiplier of 1.4x)“
  • coding seems to take about 3-7 times as long as expected
• Learning about Bayes theorem… again
  • I like the taking a sample size n. Using a known quantity who might have X .
  • https://arbital.com/p/bayes_waterfall_diagram/?l=1x1&pathId=73276
  • Prior odds x Relative likelihoods = Posterior odds
    • odds form of Bayes’ rule
    • You use relative likelihoods as the prior odds is the same despite the magnitude of each.
    • So the relative likelihood doesnt care about percentages because what we are looking for is the end proportion.
    • hmm “In general, the strength of evidence is summarized by how relatively likely different states of the world make our observations.”
    • What proportion of our final pool came from one of the two streams.
    • To convert proportion to probability divide portion by sum of portions.
    • Conditional probability restricts our worlds the where Y is the case. Looking only at cases where Y is true
• Cliff Chang on Ezra Klein talks about magic (in fantasy) used as a metaphor for feeling unique or special.
• Need to look at deploy locations