Good thread on what we’re told promotes happiness and what the research says.
https://twitter.com/MichaelDPlant/status/1682366471245119489
It’s not really surprising that gratitude, mindfulness don’t show up as ‘dramatically’ improving happiness. It’s interesting though to comment on the ‘scientism’ notion. That because we don’t have a certain kind of evidence, it should not be disregarded. An interesting study though. Doesn’t really update my beliefs about any of these practices to be honest.
Bayesian Statistics
Gelman states three steps for Bayesian data analysis:
- Specifying your probability model. This is where priors are constructed from your scientific knowledge.
- Done with statistical notation.
- Conditioning these priors on the data.
- Evaluating model fit.
So my model is that in Bayesian inference you start with a selection/set (if descrete) of values the parameter of interest could take on. You then gradually pile the measure of probability across them as you see more data.
To do this we need to know the measure for the data and the paramter, as well as the measure of the data Seen in this form of ranking, the set can be made up of any kind of parameter, like say, another distribution.
So you start with this set of values a parameter can take on, you start with a probability space and update it!
Had to cram in a load of cereal at dinner, I think I’m doing the right thing, I’d carbs to ‘hit’ but fuck me I feel awful.
I really have to see if I can eat later at night, because cramming at dinner sucks.