2021-09-30

Daily checklist

[Asimov on why space flight]((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4Ux83nJC0U)
- I like Asimov’s argument here as to why we should focus on space flight and leaving the planet. Aiming for these things helps give a holistic view of our planet, encourages us to strive together for something bigger than our invented borders
Absence of evidence is evidence of Absence
- ”Your strength as a rationalist is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality; if you are equally good at explaining any outcome you have zero knowledge.”
Expected Evidence
- ”the mere expectation of encountering evidence—before you’ve actually seen it—should not shift your prior beliefs."
- "a true Bayesian, it is impossible to seek evidence that confirms a theory…You can only ever seek evidence to test a theory, not to confirm it.”
Hindsight Bias
- Trying to figure out what is really something we couldn’t have determined with our current models. With hindsight bias all results seem obvious
- Putting ourselves in the situation where we feel our models of the world could not determine the answer. And then seeing how our models stack up to the result.
- What kind of evidence to we currently have for predicting the likelihood of some proposition
- ”In hindsight bias, people who know the outcome of a situation believe the outcome should have been easy to predict in advance. ”