@bayes @stat-rethinking
2M4.
Three cards. Side one:side two
[W:W, B:B, B:W]
Data: [B:?]
All the ways we could get a black card facing up.
1: B:B card 2: B:B card 3 B:W card with black facing up.
The total number of things that could be the case is [B:B, B:B, B:W] Parameter is the color of the other side. If other side is white. There is one way for that to happen, a B:W card. If the other side is black there are 2 ways for that to happen [B:B, B:B]