06/03/23 16:56:13

@energy

What am I thinking in the Energy space at the moment?

I’m thinking about models.
How much credence should be given to hypothesis like that of Alex Epstein.
- More generally, why is climate change not an existential risk?
  - My initial thinking is that outcomes could be non linear. Like the feedback warming affect in the oceans. This creates unpredictability, but how much?
  - It might be helpful too to get a sense of Epstein’s argument.
What’s my mental model for climate change? It’s causes, how we measure it, arguments etc.?

The AR5 will rely on two metrics for communicating the degree of certainty in key findings:

Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement. Confidence is expressed qualitatively.
Quantified measures of uncertainty in a finding expressed probabilistically (based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment).

It is noted in AR5 that models determine certainty, while it hasn’t changed largely, it’s still a factor.