19/02/23 05:48:47
@daily
Robin Hanson on Koncrete Podcast.
He talks about us maybe morphing back into foraging aspects of ourselves. He refers to the idea of hierarchy in the workplace and that maybe schools were precursors to us coping or even bothering with this. There’s also differences in how different cultures might handle this hierarchy in the workplace. Must look into these studies of say an English working being more productive than an Indian working and why that might be.
Likelihood vs probability
Likelihood operates the other way around, from a data point, assign a numerical value to the model (distribution) that is most likely to fit it.
The model that most likely fits the data is the likelihood NOT the probability.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eGJuwQ5A2o
Do you have to specify the model then for likelihood? I suppose you’ve to specify the parameters depending on your underlying model.
If we want a likelihood function for a given observation, we might assume a Gaussian distribution and be trying to assign values for mean and deviation based on data.
Prediction markets
Market prices embody a large amount of information. What if the price is being determined on an idea, or outcome.
What about the fact that there is no underlying value to the good in the prediction market?