From internal
Rising financing costs, tighter public budgets, and the realisation of the complexity of some of the concrete steps required to get serious about climate action will cause a backlash against the energy transition in Europe. While the buildout of renewables is likely to continue, and we are likely to see another record of GWs added this year, we are likely to see little progress in decarbonising industry, households, and agriculture.
Prediction
We are unlikely to see net zero targets officially being abandoned or pushed back, but we will be further away from getting onto a trajectory towards meeting them than at the end of 2023. The elections for the European Parliament in May will bring a substantially more conservative parliament, and also, the next European Commission is likely to be less progressive than the current one in climate terms. Germany is likely to become a weaker proponent of ambitious climate action in the European Council, with either a deadlocked continuation of the current governing coalition or a less progressive coalition government in its stead. Policies particularly likely to be called into doubt and/or pushed back are the phaseout of gas in heating, deep decarbonisation of industry, and, linked to that, the amount of new EUAs being issued in the ETS falling to 0 towards 2040 under the current linear reduction factor
This seems quite cynical.